Earthquake and Tsunami Predicted in Malaysia and S'pore

Reyne · 24th Nov 2005, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Quake and tsunami predicted in S'pore & M'sia

BANGKOK: Thailand's now iconic meteorologist, Dr Smith Dharmasaroja, who in Year 1998 predicted a killer tsunami would hit Thailand one day & was ignored, said S'pore & M'sia were also in danger from a future earthquake and tsunami.

"I believe the epicentre of future quakes will shift northwards, north of the Andaman & Nicobar islands."

"A big earthquake with a more northerly epicentre than the Dec 26 quake will generate a tsunami which will have a more direct route down to the Straits of Malacca, swamping S'pore and M'sia." during the month of december 05' and january 06'.

"As the sea passage narrows, more water will build up and the wave will become bigger. S'pore is relatively low-lying & quite flat, and would be badly affected. Remember, in Dec,the tsunami was 30m high at Banda Aceh. At Khao Lak,it was 16m high," he said."

Dr Smith, 70,retired as chief of Thailand's Meteorological Department well before last Dec's disaster. But before that, he had warned first in a speech and then in a memo that Thailand's Andaman coast was at risk from a killer tsunami.

Tragically his warning, although widely reported by the media, was ignored. Government officials, fearful of tourists staying away, branded him a cranky and dangerous man. The authorities in Phuket castigated him & said he was not welcome to visit. After the tsunami, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra recalled him and made him the chairman of a committee tasked with developing a national disaster warning centre and strategy.

"I'm not happy that I have made the right prediction," he said. "Nobody can accurately predict an earthquake; you can only assume from historical data," he added.

He said big natural disasters occur in 80 year to 100 year cycles, apparently randomly across the world. "If you speak out too much, forecast too much, you will get a lot of criticism, from government agencies, the tourism sector and so forth," he added.

Explaining the northward shift of future epicentres, Dr Smith stressed: "This is no joke. I would like you to put this message out to S'pore and M'sia."

A researcher working on the hypothesis, who did not want to be named, said the research was on-going and final results were not yet ready.

Dr Smith said: "I have seen the simulations that indicate this and they look believable. From my own experience, it is possible. "Only a few days ago, there was a 6.1 quake in the Andaman sea near the Nicobar islands, which is about 321.8km north of the Dec 26 quake. So, this is an indication that the epicentre is moving north."

What do you think??

aKho · 24th Nov 2005, 07:23 PM

i scared.. where the source oh? i want show my friends.. warn them early..

siddiq · 24th Nov 2005, 07:49 PM

OMG! not a good news.

Reyne · 24th Nov 2005, 08:15 PM

I got this from email. I google for it and found this link. It didn't mention anything abt it's predicted to happen during the month of dec 05 and jan 06 though.

jasperchc · 24th Nov 2005, 08:24 PM

well, he said that the epicenter is shifting north, i mean that's okay as he can extracts those from historical data of earthquake in the region, but how does he comes to the conclusion to predict that it will happen between dec'05 to jan'06?

Reyne · 24th Nov 2005, 08:28 PM

Quote:

"A big earthquake with a more northerly epicentre than the Dec 26 quake will generate a tsunami which will have a more direct route down to the Straits of Malacca, swamping S'pore and M'sia." during the month of december 05' and january 06'.

I have a feeling this line is added by someone else to scare ppl.

Papercut · 24th Nov 2005, 08:39 PM

I better write a will and try to get laid then

jasperchc · 24th Nov 2005, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Papercut

I better write a will and try to get laid then

come on, you are not even close to the predicted epicenter, but good excuse for getting laided though

Chai · 24th Nov 2005, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reyne

I have a feeling this line is added by someone else to scare ppl.

Yup, very true. Nice observation.

That sentence is not even part of the quote, and they didn't use caps on December and January.

ZuePhok · 24th Nov 2005, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasperchc

come on, you are not even close to the predicted epicenter, but good excuse for getting laided though

he will be back to sg next month

24th Nov 2005, 07:23 PM	#2 (permalink)
aKho beat around the bush Join Date: 3 Jun 2005 Location: Kuching, Sarawak Posts: 2,806 Reputation: 1169 Rep Power: 17	i scared.. where the source oh? i want show my friends.. warn them early.. __________________

24th Nov 2005, 07:49 PM	#3 (permalink)
siddiq Hold me back! I can't stop posting!!! Join Date: 16 Jun 2003 Location: Kuching, Sarawak , Malaysia Posts: 5,899 Reputation: 460 Rep Power: 15	OMG! not a good news. __________________ JOIN ARP WHATPULSE TEAM!

24th Nov 2005, 08:15 PM	#4 (permalink)
Reyne Super Active Join Date: 23 Sep 2004 Location: Penang Posts: 1,055 Reputation: 621 Rep Power: 12	I got this from email. I google for it and found this link. It didn't mention anything abt it's predicted to happen during the month of dec 05 and jan 06 though. __________________ Reyne Support Chong Eng to continue speaking for Bkt Mertajam

24th Nov 2005, 08:39 PM	#7 (permalink)
Papercut Hold me back! I can't stop posting!!! Join Date: 14 Jul 2004 Location: Singapore! Posts: 5,009 Reputation: 2428 Rep Power: 34	I better write a will and try to get laid then __________________ PC Specs "Use in a cool dry place away from direct sunlight. Keep out of reach of n00bs. Overclock within 24 hours of opening. Do not read instructions before proceeding, do not use only as directed. May cause frustration, late nights and empty wallets. If symptoms persist please consult your hardware professional."

24th Nov 2005, 08:24 PM	#5 (permalink)
jasperchc Active Join Date: 25 Aug 2005 Location: Kuching, MY Posts: 542 Reputation: 48 Rep Power: 4	well, he said that the epicenter is shifting north, i mean that's okay as he can extracts those from historical data of earthquake in the region, but how does he comes to the conclusion to predict that it will happen between dec'05 to jan'06?